The Munich Security Conference was described to the 4717 as “somber but frenzied” – which sounds like a reasonable definition of “panic.” Various Western intelligence agencies have reported on Russian plans for a wider war with NATO that Europe is likely going to have to fight itself as the US folds up its security umbrella.
Tall Pour: In Moscow, however, Vladimir Putin is in an expansive mood: he’d finally offed Alexi Navalny, his only vocal opposition, in a gulag near the Arctic Circle. In a domestic interview, Putin declared “Forward! Success! To New Borders!” Which pretty much sums up this week’s war aims. And why not? Over the week, Russia took the Ukrainian former city of Avdiiska, its first victory in over a year. Government spokesmen pointed out that if forced to give it up Moscow was forced to give up territorial gains, would nuke London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. Despite the threat to the US, Donald Trump more or less invited him to microwave Europe. And Biden threatened more sanctions that will do absolutely nothing. Still, Putin denies that Moscow is prepping to send some Bond-Villain weapon into space.
A little way down the galactic highway… Elon Musk’s SpaceX won a $1.8bn classified contract with the US government in 2021. Because flinging billionaires into orbit is something of a niche market, the company has been doing classified satellite work since its founding in 2002 and continues to expand its Starshield national security product. All of which puts Musk’s threats to cut off Ukraine’s access Starlink in a new light: It was just a publicity stunt to milk the government – or more to the point, you and me – out of money. And this squirrely dude has a fairly high clearance…
The Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Wealth Fund is selling a great whacking 1% of its share in Saudi Aramco - the national oil company - and as well as floating $9bn in dollar-denominated bonds. The sale comes on the heels of Mohammed Bin Salman’s expensive attempt to modernize the place: The fund has recently spent $48bn on a property development called New Murabba – which is anchored by a cube a quarter mile high, a yacht resort on the Red Sea, a ski resort with fake snow and a city called Neom – consisting of a pair of 110-mile long mirror-glass buildings that are as tall as the Empire State Building.
Tall Pour: We aren’t looking at a financial collapse anytime soon, its current debt stands at 26% GDP – the G7 average is 123%. While Saudi Arabia is investing to diversify – it’s spending $100bn on chips and electronics and, weirdly, wants to specialize in EVs – it hasn’t yet. MBS says he wants to turn the Middle East into the “New Europe.” Which is ironic as the old Europeans say they've been turned into the "New Middle East." Either way, it looks like he’s trying to build a “New Las Vegas.” The IMF reckons that, to maintain the for the above, the global price of oil needs to be at $86 for 2023, its currently at $82 and likely to stay in that range. Besides, a city of 9mm housing is two 110-mile long mirrors, in the desert, seems ill-advised: They actually have names for the types of sandstorms they get out there.
Meanwhile… in cash strapped Egypt they are building a regular concrete wall, but that isn't to show off. They’re trying to keep their fellow Palestinian Muslim brothers-in-arm the hell out of the place.
Richard Murff is the founder of 4717 Insights. For more on the world, how it got here and a stiff drink, head to the 4717. Murff is the author of Pothole of the Gods: On Holy War, Fake News & other Ill-Advised Ideas, Drunk as Lords, and the upcoming Horrible Political Jokes in Ukraine.