The economic fly wheel still spins...
stop it at your own peril
The economy is still defying gravity in a way that only the American economy can… but because the 4717 can’t help asking this sort of thing, what happens when the worlds to the most dynamic economy goes into a confused paralysis? Pause the money gyroscope at your own peril.
The Jobs Numbers
Those solid jobs numbers may not be a solid as they look. Despite the best efforts of DOGE a lot of the new hiring has been in state and local governments. With the exception of a few areas of concentration, like healthcare, the private sector is holding off on new hires. And household spending - month to month - dropped off in May. Ford is reducing its head count through attrition, Amazon is deploying robots in its warehouses and Microsoft has sacked 15,000 employees this year. That the tech sector didn’t see AI replacing them first tells you a lot about Silicon Valley.
Tariff “Boomerang”
The 90-day pause on the Liberation Day tariffs expire tomorrow (Wednesday). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that countries without bilateral trade agreements would see tariffs “boomerang” back to Liberation Day levels on 1 August. We can’t see how that’s going to help those jobs numbers.
BRICS & Little Balls
In more fun with tariffs, Trump warned a 10% levy on all countries siding with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS” - a wet blanket on the summit that was already pretty depressing. Iran was having a bad week; South Africa’s President Ramaphosa a scandal involving political assassinations and exposure that most of the government is basically a crime syndicate; Vladimir Putin couldn’t make it because of that International Criminal Court warrant and China’s President Xi skipped the summit for a pickle-ball tournament
About that pickle-ball tourney… Xi gave a solid shout-out to a youth team from Maryland in a more or less obvious attempt to re-boot the US-China “ping-pong diplomacy” of tRichard Nixon. This is important because BRICS is in no way, shape or form a group with a coherent ideology or set of interests. The over-weaning presence of China is about the only thing keeping the club together. If Beijing is try to play nice with the US (or look like it) - BRICS is in trouble.
Gold Rush
Vladimir Putin isn’t the only dude stuck in Russia. The Kremlin has barred gold-mining tycoon Konstantin Strakov from leaving the country is what is the first step in nationalizing his company. It’s a bald cash grab, they need the money. Russia’s economy is starting to crack: year on year car sales are down 40%, farm machinery 33%, interest rates are at 21% and inflation stuck at 9%. Meanwhile, Russia’s defense spending is up 20% while oil and gas prices are down 12%. Moscow has gone through two-thirds of its liquid rainy days fund, which will be exhausted by the end of the year if energy prices stay where they are.
Pothole of the Gods
Hamas cocked up the proposed 60-day ceasefire. This is a bold move after Israel’s divide and kill strategy has put the terror group’s allies and backers - Hizbollah, the Houthi’s, the former government of Syria and Iran – on an “everyman for himself” footing. You won’t hear the progressives say it, but the Hamas has largely lost the support of the local Palestinians who’ve had enough of being used as human shields and rocket fodder. Negotiations continue…
Richard Murff is the founder of 4717 Insights. For more insight to tear things up, head to the 4717. Murff is the author of Haint Punch, Drunk as Lords, and the revised and updated Pothole of the Gods: Holy Wars, Proxy Wars & Fake News - coming soon.